Hydrogen electrolyser market booms with '1,000-fold' growth in frame by 2040

The growth of the hydrogen electrolyser pipeline is an early indication of the rapid rollout of hydrogen infrastructure that we are likely to see in the coming years.

The global hydrogen electrolyser market is forecast to mushroom “one-thousand-fold” by 2040, with some 213.5GW of projects on the slate for development, the vast majority of which are in Europe, according to a new report from Aurora Energy Research.

Photo: Aurora Energy Research

To date most projects have been between 1-10 MWs. By 2025 a typical project will be 100-500 MWs. By 2030, typical projects are expected to scale up further to 1 GW+

Since defining Net Zero targets, institutions in Europe have turned significant attention to the potential of low carbon hydrogen, which can be produced either from electrolysis of water (‘green hydrogen’) or from natural gas with CO2 capture (‘blue hydrogen’). Many governments in Europe are especially promoting electrolysers; the EU targets 40 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030, and national governments in Europe combined have already pledged a total of 34 GW by the same date.

The success of green hydrogen from electrolysis will be driven by two key factors: the cost of the power – which makes up most of the cost; and the carbon footprint.

Hydrogen made directly from renewable energy rather than the power grid can achieve the lowest carbon footprint. This may be the only type of hydrogen that can meet the carbon intensity thresholds set by the EU.

However, there remains a significant gap in costs between ‘green’ hydrogen production from electrolysers, and existing, carbon intensive hydrogen sources.

According to Bloomberg, clean hydrogen electrolysis in 2050 will be cheaper than natural gas (for comparison on the basis of energy equivalent) in 15 of the 28 simulated national markets.

In more detail, the EU has identified Ukraine as its priority partner in the implementation of the European Hydrogen Strategy, during the period 2025-2030 it needs to become the main component of an integrated energy system. Considering the developed market for the generation of renewable energy sources and opportunities for transportation, Ukraine has a unique chance to become one of the key players in the European market.